John Thompson, Pres. Mackenzie Institute: "Waiting for the Kaboom: Precursors of an Attack"

"Waiting for the Kaboom: Indicators to Watch for" -- also on Canadian Coalition for Democracies Posted by Toba on 16:17:28 2005/08/17

Note: This was written for Canadian audiences (and with input from Canadian police intelligence and security personnel). However, the list of precursors apply everywhere that Jihadists might attack. Readers are free to print, post or distribute copies as they see fit, we only ask that the normal conventions of accreditation are observed.

The Mackenzie Institute can be reached at mackenzieinstitute@bellnet.ca, or at 416-686-4063. The latest version of this paper is posted at www.mackenzieinstitute.com.

1. Some day, maybe in a few months or perhaps not for a couple of years, Jihadist terrorists will deliver an attack in Canada, or will directly threaten Canadians in some manner overseas. Al Qaeda’s usual style is to attempt to inflict as many casualties as possible, but also to hit targets of economic importance and which may hold some symbolic value. Attempts to predict their targets and the style of their attack are largely useless… the Jihadist movement has their own agenda and a long history of surprises.

2. Although many Canadians entertain false hopes that our supposed reputation as "peacekeepers" or our equally supposed non-involvement in Iraq will spare us from their attentions; it is already clear that al Qaeda is among the 50 groups with a Canadian presence. The Salaheddin Mosque in Scarborough — whose Iman Aly Hindy recently delivered a veiled threat to the Federal Government — was attended by at least seven members of al Qaeda: These include the notorious Khadr family, and two members who were scooped up in Iraq as members of Ansar al Islam. One of the Jabarah brothers from St. Catherine’s Ontario was killed in Saudi Arabia while participating in an al Qaeda cell, the other is still in detention in the US after acting as a liaison between Osama bin Laden and Jihadists in Singapore and Indonesia.

3. Other Jihadists may still be operating in Canada. We recently deported 19 young men from Pakistan when their activities (including a 4:00 AM nature hike on the grounds of a nuclear power plant) attracted our police. Two Canadian women of Egyptian origin also got CSIS interested in Kassim Mohamed, likewise of Egyptian origin, in early 2004. Mohamed was busy filming Toronto’s subway system, fire exits from the CN tower and other points of interest. Although he claimed the footage was for his ‘homesick’ kids (who were back in Egypt because he disliked Canada’s secular schooling); one wonders what children crave minutes of footage of how subway cars enter a platform. Kassim has yet to identify the second voice on the video tape — a voice that apparently directed him to film particular objects and to conceal the camera when other people started to notice their activities.

4. Inside police circles there are stories of other reconnaissance-style activities at various points in Toronto. From the US, the UK and Australia, there have been press reports of such activities directed towards ambulances, hospitals, military airfields, churches and synagogues, schools (especially, but not limited to, Jewish ones), power stations, government buildings, office towers, chemical plants and refineries.

5. Over the past four years, Osama bin Laden has directly instructed Jihadists to attack ten nations: The United States, Great Britain, Australia, Spain, Canada and Italy, as well as Morocco, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. So far Al Qaeda has delivered successful attacks against all but Canada, Italy and Jordan -- if one counts the Bali bombing as a successful strike against Australia. Jordan escaped a massive attack that might have killed up to 20,000 people in its capital with poison gas when they arrested the attackers as they arrived in Amman with their supplies. Our turn is coming soon.

6. The first line of defence against terrorism depends on an alert and aware citizenry — people who are cognizant of what could be precursor activity for an attack and are confident enough to report it.

7. The following should trigger your suspicions:

* The theft or loss of badges, credentials, ID cards, Government/military/emergency vehicles, uniforms, or the discovery of false IDs. Attempts to scout out seven hospitals in the US in March and April of 2005 involved fake credentials and ID cards.

* Photographing, sketching or surveillance of buildings and facilities (see paragraph 4).

* Trespassing near key facilities or in supposedly secure areas, particularly by multiple persons.

* The presence of uncommon or abandoned vehicles, packages, or containers.

* Observing people who are searching trash containers or placing unusual items in them (particularly around transit systems or the lobbies of crowded buildings — but also around the private residences of important people).

* Thefts of sensitive military or government property such as computers.

* Purchases at Government surplus sales of military, police, fire or paramedic vehicles and equipment, particularly if there are indications of an intention to refurbish them to working condition. (Last autumn, it appeared that there was a keen interest in ambulances in several US cities).

* The attempted purchase or theft of large numbers of weapons (including knives).

* The attempted purchase of supplies necessary for the manufacture of explosive devices — this includes an unusual or frequent purchase of fertilizer or cleaning supplies.

* An increase in cyber attacks/probes.

* An increase in the number of threats or false fire alarms to facilities that require evacuation.

* Theft of government or private agency vehicles, vehicle passes, uniforms, or copies of standard operating procedures.

* Unknown workers trying to gain access to facilities for repairs, installation of equipment, etc.

* E-mails that request information regarding details of your facility, personnel, or standard operating procedures.

* Unusual patterns of seemingly unimportant activity: Examples might include increased foot traffic into a little used access tunnel underneath an office tower, or a fisherman who keeps returning to a point close to a nuclear power plant. [Ed's emphasis]

* Unknown persons or occupied vehicles loitering in vicinity of a potential target for an extended period of time.

8. While al Qaeda usually seems to prefer attacks with a sequence of bombs (often delivered by suicide attackers), the mail bomb is still a potential hazard. One should remain suspicious about:

* Mail that has no return address (if there is a return address and you are suspicious about the package, call them and ask if they sent something).

* Mail addressed only to the title of the prospective recipient or that uses an incorrect title.

* Misspelled words or defective addresses.

* Restrictive markings such as "personal for …." or "to be opened only by …"

* Excessive postage — the sender might not have wanted to deal face to face with a postal clerk to get the package weighed and stamped with exact postage.

* Stains, discoloration, oiliness, crystallization, or a strange odor.

* Abnormal size or excessive wrapping, particularly if the package is heavily taped or wrapped with twine.

* Wires, metal foil, string or a cell phone antenna protruding from the envelope.

* An unusually heavy or unbalanced feel to the package (the mail bomb I received some years ago felt like there was a large ceramic mug inside the package).

* A lopsided or uneven envelope — a hard lump like a watch battery might well be part of a bomb’s triggering circuit.

* A very rigid envelope.

* A springiness in part of the package (which may well be part of the trigger — do not keep testing it).

* A suspicious package which was dropped off rather than brought in by your normal method of postal delivery or courier service.

9. One should also be suspicious about other unusual activities, including:

* A large group of men (particularly ‘Middle Eastern’ looking men — forget the PC tripe about the purported evils of racial profiling) who occupy a house, apartment, or motel rooms with no apparent purpose; and who have no apparent patterns of departure/arrival that are consistent with commuting to work or school. [Ed's emphasis]

* If there is a smell of chemicals (particularly like ammonia or acetone) coming from the above site, call it in immediately! They may be cooking up explosives.

* A similar group that is interested in renting (especially for cash) office space or an apartment, yet seem to perform no apparent function with it.

* People who are in possession of large amounts of cash for no apparent reason.

* People who attempt to purchase or lease vehicles or boats with cash, and who seem evasive about the paperwork.

10. Regarding suicide attackers, in a January 2004 handout to Law Enforcement Agencies, the US Department of Homeland Security advised readers to look out for certain indicators. These included:

* A shaved head or short haircut. A short haircut or recently shaved beard or moustache may be evident by differences in skin complexion on the head or face.

* May smell of herbal or flower water, as they may have sprayed perfume on themselves and clothing to prepare for Paradise.

* Suspects have been seen "praying fervently, giving the appearance of whispering to someone."

* Recent suicide bombers have raised their hands in the air just before the explosion to prevent the destruction of their fingerprints. They have also placed identity cards in their shoes because they want to be praised and recognized as martyrs.

* Additionally, bulky clothing, which may be inappropriate for the weather and circumstances, can conceal a vest bomb (though many have used backpacks instead of vest bombs, particularly in the summer).

* Moreover, male suicide bombers have often worn multiple sets of underwear (as many as ten in some cases) and a protective cup over their genitalia to protect these organs in anticipation of the 72 Virgins they believe will be accorded a ‘Martyr" in the afterlife, an odd fit to the pants may be another indicator.

11. Custom and immigration workers, as well as police, should also be alert for:

* People with chemical burns and/or shaved chests (one arrival in Canada tried to explain that the burns were so that he could match his passport photo!).

* False documents, especially from visa exempt countries like the EU nations, US in Canada (and vice versa), Australia, Singapore, etc. If in doubt ask your subject about the national anthem, currency, landmarks, etc. from the country he claims to be from.

* Persons who come via another country than the one that issued his passport. For example, someone traveling on a forged Spanish passport might arrive in Canada via the UK as his forgery might be easily spotted if he arrived directly from Spain (This is an advised tactic in the al Qaeda manual).

* Is this person trying to enter during a weekend or holiday, when it might be assumed there would be fewer and/or less attentive staff at the airport?

* What currency has he got in his pockets? Coins can be very revealing: ATMs and Thomas Cook-style money exchanges never give or accept coinage, and these would be especially telling about where the subject has been — particularly if there is a discrepancy between his story and the contents of his pockets.

* Any duty free stamps on his cigarettes, where did they come from? Or his toiletries?

* Is he carrying matches or a lighter and no cigarettes?

* Is he carrying maps and photographs, diagrams, something coded (like phone numbers), or a list of temporary/casual e-mail addresses (hotmail and yahoo accounts particularly)? Are there CD disks that are plain and unmarked, even if — or especially if — they are tucked in the case or jacket of a commercial product?

* Is there an album or disc of photographs? Are any missing? Remember that digital cameras put a sequence stamp on each photo.

* What books or magazines is he carrying? In what languages, and where were they printed?

12. Should you notice any of the above points, don’t be afraid to quickly let your local police know about them. In particular, if calling the police, place a call to their HQ and ask for the Intelligence Section or INSET (Integrated National Security Enforcement Team). If calling 911, ask for a supervisor as most of them will know where to forward your call. [Ed's emphasis]

13. Make sure your report is clear and factual, share your suspicions but emphasize the reasons why they arose in the first place. Record your observations as quickly as possible, while your impressions are still fresh.

14. If something or someone attracts your notice, take no action other than to report it immediately. Do not attempt heroics — this may deter a possible attack elsewhere, but not the broken neck that a startled Jihadist might deliver to you personally if you grab him (or the assault charges or lawsuit if you grabbed an innocent party). Besides, terrorists are skittish about discovery and the impression that they have kindled your suspicions may be enough to send them scuttling off elsewhere. [Ed's emphasis]

My appreciation goes to the Mackenzie Institute's John Thompson for writing this and to the Canadian Coalition for Democracies for posting this for all of us. In the interest of adding to the readership, I have posted this here, rather than just a link which might not be sufficient to indicate its import. NJC

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