Avoiding Monkey Business -- The Hotline Asks Pollsters: What Validates a Poll? Don't miss!

I have some concerns about Canadian polls. This is a guide so you may interpret Canadian polling, along with how to make certain pollsters provide their methodology--not just headlines--whenever polls are used.

To minimize the monkey business, voters need to know who pays for the polls and some of the results the polls get. Voters need to demand that pollsters reveal as much information as possible, not just the minimum. Government spends more than any other business on advertising. It behooves the electorate to remember there is an incestuous relationship between some political parties, pollsters and the mainstream media. It is incumbent upon the reader to be informed of:

* the methodology
* who is paying for the poll
* whether the one paying has government work / contracts

The following article pertains to the US but it is relevant to Canadians to know about polling before this election. The more voters know, the more they are able to cut through the media spin.


Mystery Pollster -- Demystifying the Science and Art of Political Polling - By Mark Blumenthal, April 22, 2005

This week, the hard working folks at The Hotline, the daily online political news summary published by the National Journal, did a remarkable survey of pollsters on the question of how they check their samples for accuracy. The asked virtually every political pollster to answer these questions: "What's the first thing you look at in a survey to make sure it's a good sample? In other words -- what validates a poll sample for you?" They got answers from six news media pollsters and thirteen campaign pollsters (including MP and his partners).

Now, MP readers are probably not aware of it, since few can afford a subscription to Washington's premiere political news summary, but The Hotline has been closely following MP's series on disclosure of Party ID. [. . . . ]

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